Today — the session call
The level that decides it
Regime · the read from above
—
How to read this page — the only terms it usestap to hide
Desks — the banks and writers in the articles (Goldman, JPM, MS, BofA, TME, Hartnett…). Everything labelled LONG / SHORT is the desks: their published calls added up, weighted by each desk's track record. LONG = they argue the price of that contract goes up.
Board — this page's own call (▲ up · ▼ down · ◆ no call), made after checking what price actually did after each headline. When the desks say LONG and the board shows ▼, the tag says board disagrees: price has been ignoring the desks' news.
n/5 — how strong the desks' lean is (size of the call × how much they agree). contested = the desks are split, so there is no real lean.
LT · ST · Session — the board's three horizons: LONG TERM = months · SHORT TERM = 1–6 weeks · SESSION = the next trading day, with the price level that decides it. An amber ring on LT or ST = the board disagrees with the desks on that horizon.
Green / red — always the contract's own price: green = up, red = down, grey = no lean or no call. The 10Y card is quoted in yield (green = yields up); the VIX card in vol.
Dots on a price line — a headline: red = price went against the news, green = with it, grey = too early. Dashed lines are levels from the articles; dotted grey = 20/50-day averages. Click anything — every asset, signal and headline opens a detail panel; ⌘K searches the whole board.
01
What decides it next
the triggers the articles spelled out, in order of proximity — and what each outcome sets in motion
02
Why — the chain
cause → effect, and the contracts each link moves; the yellow links are the ones that matter now. Chips open the asset.
Now — the evidence
The chain
03
Asset desk
nine asset classes: the board's long-term, short-term and session call, the desks' lean, and the article levels on 30 days of tape. Open a card for the full desk.
04
Momentum — what the desks have been writing
28 days of desk attention per asset, coloured by which way the desks leaned on that contract that day; brighter = more, and more trusted, desks
desks lean UP on the row's contract that daylean DOWNtwo-sidedopacity = trust-weighted attentionrail: the desks' long-term and short-term lean today · attention has nothing to do with price
05
Every live signal
one dot per claim, clustered by theme — size = trust, pulsing = in play, colour = which way it pushes the theme's contract. Hover to read, click to open; click a theme to filter the list.
contract updownno axis
06
Theme → contract — the desks
which theme is pushing which contract: ribbon width = trust × recency of the signals behind it, colour = the push (green up, red down). Hover to isolate, click a theme to read its signals.
pushing the contract UPpushing it DOWNleft bar colour = the theme's lean on its own axisboard mode: contracts take the board's short-term call, the small dot is the session call, the desks' pushes fade behind
How to read this board — every mark, and what UP means for each theme
Direction is always the contract's price
Every ▲/▼, every green/red, is about the theme's own instrument — never "bullish" in the abstract: ZB/ZN ▼ (yields ▲) gold ▲ IG spreads WIDER.
Rates: ▲ = bond futures UP = yields DOWN. Credit: ▲ = spreads tighter (calm), ▼ = wider (stress). Dollar: ▲ = USDJPY up = dollar strong, yen weak.
Board vs desks
Desks = the articles' calls added up (LONG / SHORT n/5, weighted by track record). Board = this page's call (▲ ▼ ◆) after checking what price did with those articles. "Board disagrees" = price has been ignoring the desks' news, so the board goes the other way.
Theme axes
Two separate dials per theme
Lean = which way the desks point on the axis, weighted by trust × recency. Agreement = how one-sided (1.0 = unanimous).
ATTENTION ▲ = the theme's share of desk citations grew vs the prior 7 days. It is about how much the desks are talking, not which way price is going.
Signal states
IN PLAY trust ≥ 2.5 and re-stated within 2 days. DEVELOPING trust ≥ 1.5 within 5 days. BACKGROUND the rest.
trust 3.1 = the sum of the trust weights of the distinct desks behind the claim (1.0 = coin-flip).
Counters
LONG 4/5 what the news flow implies for that contract; conviction = magnitude × agreement; CONTESTED = desks split, capped 2/5. News only — no prices.
07
Desks' lean by contract
the 45 futures the desks write about — LONG / SHORT is the desks; the small board ▲▼ chip is the board's short-term call where it has one
08
Hartnett watch
BofA's CIO as a mid-term overlay — the Bull & Bear indicator and his standing views
—
09
Resolved & coverage
retired signals with their outcome — the track record behind the trust weights — and what the last run read